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John Robins
Joined: 01 Jan 1985 Posts: 1208 Location: Staffordshire, United Kingdom
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Posted: Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:10 pm Post subject: So where do we go from here? |
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Much as I find the new habit of starting sentences with that word an annoyance it does seem an appropriate usage in this case.
The government has decreed and we shall have to follow, but to where? My present perception (nearly said current perception), is that the electric vehicle in the state of development reached now cannot nearly meet the total performance offered by even a modest i.c. powered motor, the main shortfall being its range.
What are the chances of battery technology reducing the weight per kilowatt/hour and thereby increasing the range, while allowing a reduction in the recharge waiting time to something closer to the time taken to fill the fuel tank of a conventional vehicle? What improvements can be achieved in the longevity of batteries, while reducing their unit cost? Having seen in the past ideas like having identical battery packs for all vehicles available at recharge stations fully charged and able to be swapped for depleted packs seems to me to be just too complex to work.
In the meanwhile we may be left in the position of those whose homes are blighted by developments like HS2, trying to work out how best to wring the remaining equity from a depreciating asset, in this case mobile, at least for the present.
Any thoughts? |
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Chris Card Guest
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Posted: Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:42 pm Post subject: |
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Just a thoght, how many more wind farms will we need to recharge all the batteries? Also, what is the environmental hazard associated with all those lithium batteries as they expire?
Chris |
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John Murch

Joined: 05 Jun 1976 Posts: 1567 Location: London, United Kingdom
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Posted: Thu Jul 27, 2017 5:21 am Post subject: |
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There are continuous developments in battery tech, obviously the existing tech is not perfect, but the R & D that will be driven by the legislation should assist in getting there. Lithium is currently the most popular type of battery and is a 'dirty' mineral to produce, but there are many more hopeful solutions in the pipeline that might produce a solution.
Living in the City of London, I am all too aware of the appalling polution caused by Black Cabs, the private hire Prius vehicles are infinitely better in that respect. In a few years time there will be all electric (or hybrid?) black cabs.
The design and efficiency of alternative energy systems will improve, who knows if this will all be up to speed by 2040, but we have to try. |
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Charles Skinner
Joined: 31 Jul 2016 Posts: 30 Location: Essex, United Kingdom
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Posted: Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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As is always the case, it is easiest to hit the individual rather than the corporations. Although motorists number millions, we have nothing like the lobbying clout of the multinationals whose services create far greater quantities of noxious emissions than cars. I refer as examples to the airline and shipping industries. There are many other factual issues, not least the performance inadequacies of battery powered cars which may or may not be solved. Emotional arguments don't help but do not stop this petrol head from stating that he finds battery powered cars to be utterly boring and characterless. They make the facile circus of F1 look almost interesting. |
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Christopher Carnley
Joined: 16 Nov 2007 Posts: 2746 Location: Yorkshire, United Kingdom
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Posted: Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:50 pm Post subject: |
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1901.
2015
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John Robins
Joined: 01 Jan 1985 Posts: 1208 Location: Staffordshire, United Kingdom
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Posted: Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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It seems that some of the press has today suggested that the government's policy announcement is ill considered or half cocked, being little more than a knee-jerk response to external criticism and to the French president's recent comments. Industry, having recently spent money on new engine plant, not least at Jaguar Land Rover's new factory, must be somewhat nonplussed by this move. The BMW announcement that electric Minis are to be assembled at Cowley doesn't count for much as the clever bits will be shipped in from Germany. This in UK, supposedly a niche for advanced engineering of both the development and production kind.
The fact that energy conversion involving the burning of some fossil fuel to fill the batteries with electricity will still have to happen seemed to have escaped Radio Four yesterday, their car hating editorial staff seemingly cock a hoop at a perceived victory, although John M does have a point about Prius taxis. Even hybrids, however, will have to go.
Whilst I am unlikely still to be around when the 2050 total ban on internal combustion engined cars occurs, I still view all this with some concern. |
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John Murch

Joined: 05 Jun 1976 Posts: 1567 Location: London, United Kingdom
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Posted: Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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In California they have more 'renewable' energy than they know what to do with.
Hopefully renewable resources will steadily increase and improve in the uk.
I will be well past car driving by 2040, but I'm sure the phase out of petrol/diesel cars will take a while and no actual ban on their use necessary, just strict control on mot's of emissions.
I do agree that there are many sources of polution that are worse than the private car, but they are not concentrated in the areas where the majority live.
I only have my WO, I find all modern cars dull to drive, but marvel at their tech, cameras, lane warning systems, comfort etc. Also their ability to accelerate and cruise at high speeds while doing 50mpg. But we are limited to 70mph so where do people use all this stunning performance? I think one of the Tesla cars is the fastest accelerating 4 seat production car. |
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A P S Kimberley
Joined: 12 Dec 2024 Posts: 27 Location: Gloucestershire, United Kingdom
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Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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When travelling on the M4 two days ago, I saw frequent signs warning that 'tiredness kills - take a break'.
The ViaMichelin route planner has a built-in warning on the print-out every two hours, to the effect that the driver should rest after that time.
Current everyday electric cars seem to boast a range of around 100 miles, (though many more are claimed for a Tesla) which could effectively enforce the 'two-hour rule', as the need to stop to recharge would probably come roughly two-hourly on a journey. Useful for safety, or the 'nanny state' winning again? |
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Roger Mathew
Joined: 19 May 2008 Posts: 279 Location: Devon, United Kingdom
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Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:34 pm Post subject: |
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Definitely nanny state!
The threat will only be defeated by the market sedulously refusing to buy electric. If the market for EVs remains stubbornly tiny and people simply carry on using their existing proper motor cars for a few years longer than they ordinarily would, the threat will go away and sanity will prevail.
Most current petrol cars are good for at least 150k miles, so it is not really a problem to keep them running and refuse to buy new as long as only kiddikars are available as new replacements. Should be good for secondhand values.
What the chances are of the market responding in this way only time will tell. I may well be firmly nailed into my box by 2040, but the threat to those of us who like paddling around in proper motor cars exercises me whilst I yet have breath. I gather that the intention is to kill off all petrol engines by 2050. I am so unlikely to be alive, let alone driving, by then that it is academic for me, but this sort of nonsense needs to be firmly resisted. |
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John Robins
Joined: 01 Jan 1985 Posts: 1208 Location: Staffordshire, United Kingdom
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Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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Roger, whilst agreeing with your view, I am certain that there is a parallel to be drawn between your continuing desire to remain a petrolhead, and the position of the remainers or the anti HS2ers, who seem at the moment to be on the back foot. Having elected a government, we are then stuck with having to let them do whatever they want for the next five years since they seem not to be interested in feedback between elections. |
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Paul Spencer

Joined: 17 Feb 2003 Posts: 1088 Location: Oxfordshire, United Kingdom
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Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:26 pm Post subject: |
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With all the infrastructure in place for producing and distributing petrol and diesel, will prices drop as more people go electric? |
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Roger Mathew
Joined: 19 May 2008 Posts: 279 Location: Devon, United Kingdom
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Posted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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The question is, "will more people go electric?" The experience of those who went diesel, only to find the cure worse than the disease, may well deter.
My own view is that, until a viable low temperature nuclear process is developed, electricity will remain unsuitable as a primary power source for transport. There are some niche uses: short commutes, school runs and local shopping, but journeys over about 100 miles round trip currently require an overnight stop for recharge and this is unlikely to change much in the next 23 years. I may be wrong, but shall not be putting any money on it.
Current petrol cars have a life of at least 150k miles. With good care, 250k is achievable. Anyone under 50 would be well advised to buy the best quality, low-mileage car (s)he can afford, look after it and plan to keep it for 30 years. A stockpile of essential spares can be acquired over the next 10 years or so; and no doubt entrepreneurs will add to the collection. As it is not proposed to phase out diesel for HGV and public transport vehicles, it may make sense to buy a diesel-engined car, as supplies of diesel fuel will have to continue, even if a desperate future govt decides to restrict petrol production and distribution. [Bentayga diesels, everyone?]
If this does not strangle the electric stampede at birth, we can look forward to UK resembling Cuba by 2055, with ancient jalopies the norm outside metropolitan districts and city dwellers marooned in a 60-70 mile radius of their homes.
I concede that my illustrative scenario is unlikely to eventuate. The unintended consequences are likely to be different but the principle is sound: such an abrupt radical disjointing of transport evolution as has been proposed cannot but cause major disruption. The one scenario that will NOT eventuate is the one envisaged by the policy; this is a Law of the Universe. |
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John Robins
Joined: 01 Jan 1985 Posts: 1208 Location: Staffordshire, United Kingdom
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Posted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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Alternative future proof answer is to buy a large diesel truck to transport your electric Bentayga over long distances, using the truck to tow a caravan and piggyback a racing dinghy as well. That's me sorted, apart from the Bentayga bit.
Interesting that Tesla give their Tesla 3 a range of 208 miles at 70mph with the heater on, which probably means 150 in reality. |
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Roger Mathew
Joined: 19 May 2008 Posts: 279 Location: Devon, United Kingdom
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Posted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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John Robins wrote: |
Interesting that Tesla give their Tesla 3 a range of 208 miles at 70mph with the heater on, which probably means 150 in reality. |
Maybe, in East Anglia Have they said where the assessment was made?
You would need a HGV licence for your truck.
IF the crazy plot gets any legs, I foresee the emergence of businesses arising on the stage coach principle: myriads of standard boxes, warehoused at motorway service stations and edge-of-town supermarkets, offering to swap our exhausted identikit boxes with a fully-charged one for an exorbitant - and heavily taxed - fee. I also foresee a myriad of scams arising out of any such business plan. |
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John Murch

Joined: 05 Jun 1976 Posts: 1567 Location: London, United Kingdom
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Posted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:17 pm Post subject: |
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I am probably an optimist, but do you not think it likely that there will be considerable improvement in battery design and technology. The possibility of hygrogen being produced far more cheaply than at present is also likely.
I wonder if in 1895 people in their horse drawn carriages thought that by the early 1920's you could buy a car with the performance and reliability of a 3ltr Bentley. |
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Paul Spencer

Joined: 17 Feb 2003 Posts: 1088 Location: Oxfordshire, United Kingdom
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Posted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:29 pm Post subject: |
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I can't remember the exact prophecy, but didn't someone in Victorian times say that if the population of London kept growing at its current rate the streets would be knee-deep in horse dung by 1950?
I bet Chris knows the proper quotation. |
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